This text was originally published by The Amargi on 26 February 2026. In the text, I argue that freshwater bankruptcy is a missing variable in manifold forecasts about the Islamic Republic’s stability. Geopolitics and repression matter, but so do aquifers, seasons, and decades of water mismanagement that have turned potable water into a strategic limit on daily life. Is the Islamist regime of Iran ripe for fall? Many voices in the Iranian diaspora firmly stand to this prospect, despite the unspeakable atrocities committed by the IRGC in January. As a German-Iranian activist recently put it (shared in a video on Instagram), the regime “will not live to see next year”, pointing to the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 20-21. Spring is an important reminder that the regime’s fate has more to do with weather and seasons than widespread (geo-)political forecasts may suggest. The impact of climate change on current developments is treated largely as a blind spot, yet climate distress and Iran’s water bankruptcy are the primary reasons why the Iranian regime is, in effect, unsustainable.WeiterlesenFreshwater Bankruptcy as the Blind Spot in Iran Forecasts