Is the Islamist regime of Iran ripe for fall? Many voices in the Iranian diaspora firmly stand to this prospect, despite the unspeakable atrocities committed by the IRGC in January. As a German-Iranian activist recently put it (shared in a video on Instagram), the regime “will not live to see next year”, pointing to the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 20-21. Spring is an important reminder that the regime’s fate has more to do with weather and seasons than widespread (geo-)political forecasts may suggest. The impact of climate change on current developments is treated largely as a blind spot, yet climate distress and Iran’s water bankruptcy are the primary reasons why the Iranian regime is, in effect, unsustainable.
Let us first glance at the current discourse. Given the question of a possible return of the monarchy, the eve of the last Iranian revolution has become an inevitable line of enquiry. Many commentators seek wisdom and predictability in revisiting the Shah’s last days in Iran, until he left the country on January 16, 1979. Even as pundits warn against drawing direct comparisons, their own analysis often does just that, hinting at blind spots in historical understanding. Look at the case of political scientist Fred Halliday, whose book Iran: Dictatorship and Development has become a seminal for Iranian studies. The book was completed just at the brink of the Iranian Revolution, in 1978, to be published in 1979, when the Shah had left and the Ayatollah taken over. While it offers grounded and lucid analyses of the Pahlavi state, it still fails – in retrospect – to unveil the real fragility of the Shah.
Contemporary analyses of Iran tend to fall into two categories. The first emphasises the geopolitical context. Following escalations with Israel and its military campaigns in Syria and Lebanon, Iran’s most important proxies are lost. Trump’s erratic posture, coupled with the improbability of intervention from China, Russia, or other regional powers, further weakens the Islamic Republic. While Turkey and the Gulf monarchies oppose foreign intervention, most geopolitical analyses suggest that the Iranian regime is on the brink of collapse.
The second category of analysts seek to understand the regime and Iranian society from within, often with close relations that provide invaluable insights. The findings of this second group are divided: even though there is widespread agreement that the regime has lost the support of the Iranian population to an unprecedented degree, the sheer violence that it can and does employ suggests that the regime is much more resilient than we think.
All of the above-mentioned arguments focus on structural weaknesses, and all are convincing in their own regard. And yet, the most vital structure threatening Iran’s future, in a very literal sense, is rarely discussed: man-made water scarcity, whether resulting from global warming or decades of water mismanagement. The current blind spot on climate is likely due to the fact that the recent protests began in winter, when climate distress was tempered by seasonal cooling and even precipitation.
In October 2025, just before the popular mobilisations of the winter took hold, the situation was quite different. Regime officials suggested that Tehran may have to be evacuated and rebuilt in southern Iran due to its freshwater crisis. Try to imagine: a metropolis with at least 9.8 million inhabitants in the city proper, to be evacuated and rebuilt hundreds of kilometres away – a historically unprecedented endeavour. But Tehran’s water supply stress remains unresolved, and it is only the tip of the iceberg.
Iran’s environmental issues are far from being understudied. While much of the country is arid and suffers from drought, just north of Tehran the landscape is covered with thick and abundant vegetation. These unique Caspian Hyrcanian mixed forests in the northern provinces rank among the world’s most endangered natural woodlands.
Furthermore, the situation of the country’s aquifers, its fossil freshwater reservoirs, pose serious concern, threatened by decades of water mismanagement for agricultural purposes. Lake Urmia, situated between Eastern and Western Azerbaijan and formerly the largest saltwater lake in the Middle East, has almost entirely dried up, with dire consequences for the local population. The situation is equally critical around Semnan, southeast of Tehran, where severe desertification threatens the population.
In environmental studies of Iran, the notion of ‘water bankruptcy’ appears regularly, referring to the country running out of potable water. The shocking prospect for Tehran’s future, in other words, was not entirely surprising.
Climate change appears as a decisive driver of public unrest and even large-scale violence and wars. The outbreaks of protest in Iran in 2021 were linked to freshwater distress, but this remains a global phenomenon. As the German social theorist Harald Welzer predicts in his 2008 book Climate Wars, drought and water scarcity will be the drivers of warfare and unrest in the twenty-first century.
Right-wing populists, often the agenda-setters of today, and not known for taking an interest in the science behind climate issues. Donald Trump, one of the world’s best known climate deniers, focuses on oil, gas and perpetual growth. Even in Germany, once a forerunner in environmental policy, climate awareness appears to be on the retreat. In order to turn knowledge and facts into public policy, the language of critique and international research are indispensable.
It is understandable that many commentators and strategists, in the name of pragmatism, focus on Trump’s interests and involvement in the region. The US’s problematic past presence in the Gulf, Israel’s interests, and other prominent geopolitical considerations are, of course, important. Yet we live in an age that demands full attention to climate issues, which transcend traditional geopolitical reasoning. Therefore, it is necessary to include the perilous factor of Iran’s shrinking aquifers in all assessments and forecasts. It seems anachronistic to emphasise the emergency surrounding oil and gas reserves if the non-renewable fresh water question is ignored. Climate change and freshwater are major driving forces behind conflicts, and any resolution requires a highly collaborative, open-minded approach. This is one reason, among others, why the Iranian regime has no viable future: it is simply unsustainable.